Are you considering purchasing a newly built property? Or are you concerned about how your real estate investment may evolve? With the Spanish property market clearly in an expansion phase, it is only natural to wonder what the house price forecast for 2026 will be.
At Prime Invest, we understand that making informed decisions is essential to protect and maximise your investment. For this reason, in this article we analyse the current market situation and the outlook for 2026, offering clear and practical insights to help you understand the dynamics of the sector.
Contextualising the Spanish property market
According to the Real Estate Sector Report by CaixaBank Research, the Spanish residential market has regained strong momentum since mid-2024. Housing demand has reached levels not seen since 2007, driven by improved financing conditions, demographic growth and rising household purchasing power.
Despite the high volume of property transactions, demographic pressure and a persistent lack of supply remain key challenges. Most transactions still involve second-hand homes, although new-build properties are gradually gaining ground as housing supply recovers and the development sector becomes more active.
Analysis of housing supply and demand in 2025
In 2025, the supply of new housing has continued to increase, but it is still insufficient to meet the accumulated demand since 2021. The housing shortage remains significant, putting sustained pressure on prices, particularly in highly urbanised and tourist-driven areas such as Madrid, Barcelona, Málaga and the Valencian Community.
Demand remains strong, driven by both domestic buyers and international purchasers. The profile of the non-resident foreign buyer has evolved, showing greater diversity in nationalities and a growing interest in a wider range of locations across Spain. This trend has a direct impact on price pressure in certain local markets.
Property market outlook for 2026
Will house prices fall in 2026? The answer is no. According to the CaixaBank Research report, the house price forecast for 2026 points to continued growth, although at a more moderate pace than in 2025. Strong demand and limited supply are expected to keep driving price appreciation, particularly in areas with high residential and tourist demand.
Unlike the property bubble of the 2000s, the current situation is characterised by a genuine housing shortage and a solid financial system, which significantly reduces the risk of sharp price corrections.
Key factors for investors when assessing the house price forecast
When interpreting the house price forecast and defining a sound investment strategy for 2026, it is essential to consider several structural elements shaping the evolution of the market. According to the CaixaBank Real Estate Sector Report, the current momentum of the Spanish residential market is being driven by solid demand and a supply that is increasing, but still not sufficiently to fully ease existing pressures.
First, sustained demand remains a key pillar: the formation of new households, together with growing interest from both domestic and international buyers, continues to support a high absorption rate. This is compounded by a persistent housing shortage across much of the country, particularly in areas with strong demographic or tourist pressure, where new-build supply falls short of accumulated demand and helps to underpin prices.
Another determining factor is the growing influence of non-resident foreign buyers, whose greater purchasing power and preference for mid- to high-end properties have a direct impact on specific coastal and urban markets, adding further pressure on available supply.
Finally, macroeconomic factors such as more favourable financing conditions, stabilising employment and a predictable economic environment are shaping a context of greater confidence for property investment. Taken together, these variables help explain why forecasts continue to point towards an upward price trend in the short to medium term.
Prime Invest: expert advisory services to buy with confidence and maximise your investment
In a market where the house price forecast points to continued growth in 2026, having the support of a specialised real estate consultancy is essential to make well-informed decisions.
As consultants, we advise on key aspects such as the taxes associated with purchasing a property, the costs linked to notary and land registry services, and the regulatory specificities that particularly affect the luxury housing segment. These types of transactions often require more in-depth analysis, greater accuracy in asset valuation and rigorous document management, which is why we provide expert support to ensure security and alignment with your financial objectives.
At Prime Invest, we support our clients throughout the entire process, from identifying investment opportunities to the legal and tax completion of the property purchase.
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